{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0BWVT6VJN6",
  "slug": "uk-announces-transfer-of-falklands-to-argentina-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the UK announce a transfer of the Falklands to Argentina by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "uk-politics",
    "argentina-uk-relations",
    "territorial-dispute",
    "diplomatic-announcement",
    "falkland-islands"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the UK government will officially announce a sovereignty transfer of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary contract prices the outcome; no parallel rate-level or margin structure exists across platforms. Resolution requires an official UK government announcement confirming the transfer, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. No such announcement has been made as of the current date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C28NF6SHC0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.047,
    "implied_probability": 0.047
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C28NF6SHC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0BWVT6VJN6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32ed010ef587b84b343f976ddbae69e370fa2f47c5ddd9c88097f73e0e026708",
      "question": "UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAn official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required. Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Fal",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An official announcement from the United Kingdom government confirming transfer of Falkland Islands sovereignty to Argentina by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAn official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required. Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands will not qualify.\n\nA consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11112.356125,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "argentina",
        "falkland islands",
        "falkland islands transfer",
        "geopolitics",
        "sovereignty",
        "uk"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0BWVT6VJN6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}