{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
  "slug": "uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026",
  "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 exceed 2%?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "uk-gdp",
    "economic-growth",
    "macroeconomics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track UK annual GDP growth for 2026 across seven mutually exclusive rate bands. Each Polymarket contract covers a discrete growth tier, from below 0% to 5% or higher, forming a complete probability distribution over outcomes. Together they imply a consensus point estimate without requiring a single continuous contract. The authoritative source is the UK Office for National Statistics Q4 2026 first estimate, published February 12, 2027, with resolution via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XQK141K1T6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.382,
    "implied_probability": 0.382
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J9B58VGCD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb57f012ac5d6e101ba4d0b10af780f4cfe9d34bb4eced617e6bd1e43cc8e4376",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<0: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 47.57,
      "volume_total_usd": 10626.065344,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-09399ECC26",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6564TKZ4C8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a0dcff6f438d1c92574b58d58e9fe4bc13f2db6399ec81655986e5925a61ffd",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0-1%: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.48,
      "implied_probability": 0.48,
      "volume_24h_usd": 98.467837,
      "volume_total_usd": 12418.371406000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-55A1E618C7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XQK141K1T6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x79558ff86ae0d59862750f49da4ee3658d5457b39fdb3970753f4ced2076ae3b",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1-2%: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.382,
      "implied_probability": 0.382,
      "volume_24h_usd": 199.02999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 18959.53796699999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E4AC9A796A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6PFFS3FQS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e6b2daf6955c98fec374dee6db9c44ac89b8d2e9c0cc4744a79d7d9b633f120",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 2% and 3%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2-3%: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50.00000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3774.9903719999984,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E4AC9A796A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K0DH4QY8Z7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff5f8fbf498da1e1c2e5612751b9f1c6fe3c501284d8479df426ab85a2be9aa1",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3-4%: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 50.00000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 2766.128765,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-642690AADA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8GC537TKQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95fbfa0814e712d4ed4cd43ddce85503c80517b69e2fe4858163f58990323d5e",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4% and 5%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4-5%: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50.00000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 7804.623514000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D54862D651",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H3ZWWBF151",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd1cdfc25c26ccb87c1045b1361147da598b831faf6f65d39e31462e385058759",
      "question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be 5% or higher?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5%+: UK Office for National Statistics GDP First quarterly estimate release for Q4 2026, published February 12, 2027, determines annual real GDP growth percentage; outcomes resolve to higher bracket if value falls exactly between ranges.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-12T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the \"GDP First quarterly estimate, UK\" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases\n\nThe estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.\n\nIf no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ons.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 39.760000000000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 2922.766377,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-F63E5FC3E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gdp",
        "growth",
        "uk",
        "uk gdp growth"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}