{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S0SN3369D1",
  "slug": "ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31",
  "question": "Will Ukraine hold a peace referendum by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine",
    "referendum",
    "2026",
    "peace-process"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ukraine schedules a peace referendum by each successive deadline in 2026. Each contract is a binary question on a later cutoff date, forming a term structure of referendum scheduling probability. Earlier deadlines imply lower probability; later ones imply higher cumulative probability. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, and ambiguity around what constitutes a formally \"scheduled\" referendum may create contestable resolution scenarios.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2M0L0M7GX7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S0SN3369D1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0dcb82c1f435a34fd6f80b0ed6ac98e96125e347d50c258426e5c9600e085661",
      "question": "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T07:55:46Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31?",
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      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:13:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "question": "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOn",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 293556.18120699987,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGQJ9899X0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S0SN3369D1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca06bab63e1d7685c70eea1ea6e97083fdb7850f20ea14e391d25a08c863aaba",
      "question": "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-02-01T07:55:46Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-S0SN3369D1",
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}