{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
  "slug": "ukraine-election-called-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Ukraine hold a presidential election by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine",
    "elections",
    "political-process",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ukraine's government will call a national election by successive deadlines spanning 2025 through 2026. Each contract is a discrete binary, with earlier deadlines implying a subset of conditions satisfied by later ones. Polymarket resolves all five via its UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing publicly verifiable announcement evidence at each cutoff date. The March 2026 contract resolved at January 1, 2026; remaining strikes offer a probability term structure on ceasefire-contingent electoral timing.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8RY1P3K103",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8RY1P3K103",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3d74c153a35436ff82a5f78200104975c5841140ace763f2954adb340cca511",
      "question": "Ukraine election called in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:11:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Government of Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 982716.694339,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "politics",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine election called"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7X66XC9H00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfaa78bad74daeb6e5296ae5785df7805275d00e84c81dc37954446132595caed",
      "question": "Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Government of Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1206.404541,
      "volume_total_usd": 85372.801532,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "politics",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine election called"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HC6MC7N481",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0bd9ea5ce49559923c2929958afa1c699b0c1ace54cdd6ffa0b56506e9273d56",
      "question": "Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T11:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Government of Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T19:00:45.669Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 210858.07764600002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "politics",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine election called"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MLCJQP9KS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x707125b175feb87a7d28c1e3b0e8e834f11c0dff65edac8c4fe5d1e12bf8fc33",
      "question": "Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be us",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:19:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Government of Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 296494.79415599955,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "politics",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine election called"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JHY6XHHB26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdab71ad1d7d7661435f2556eb8e29473d322d9d8af2705a9732c4872629de090",
      "question": "Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T07:36:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 269086.32246999943,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "politics",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine election called"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MLCJQP9KS7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JHY6XHHB26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T07:36:01Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8RY1P3K103",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:11:37Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-QK40SMGDC3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}