{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5C5D7LP6B5",
  "slug": "ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nato-expansion",
    "ukraine",
    "military-alliance",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Ukraine achieves full NATO membership status before January 1, 2027. Resolution depends on NATO's official member states list, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Unanimous ratification by all current NATO members is required for accession. Active conflict status and alliance consensus present significant structural barriers to resolution within this window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1RHZF414Y0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.052,
    "implied_probability": 0.052
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1RHZF414Y0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5C5D7LP6B5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x48c2b06383f2bfe38ce3c68fc7623586b11817d061f52ecada284c82eb717f39",
      "question": "Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?",
      "description": "If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "NATO's official member states list on its website determines whether Ukraine has achieved full membership status by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "nato.int",
            "url": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official NATO website",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.052,
      "implied_probability": 0.052,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1236683.4807190043,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine nato membership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5C5D7LP6B5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}