{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VDGNRYZS97",
  "slug": "ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Ukraine officially agree to a US-backed ceasefire framework by the settlement date?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "ukraine-ceasefire",
    "us-diplomacy",
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ukraine formally agrees to a US-backed ceasefire framework by sequential deadlines through June 30, 2025. Each binary contract extends the prior deadline, creating a term structure of diplomatic probability across the December 31, January 31, February 28, March 31, and June 30 tenors. All five markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable official agreement. The December 31 contract reached its resolve date of January 1, 2026; remaining tenors reflect ongoing diplomatic uncertainty.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9P0SS076G5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9P0SS076G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VDGNRYZS97",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xeec8878a64e41f43b81c4402f6b93f07899a85aff3be0683565aedbd23f99d6b",
      "question": "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:\n\n1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named candidate's official agreement to a US-endorsed peace framework resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T13:51:41Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:\n\n1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.\n\n2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.\n\n3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.\n",
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      "status": "closed",
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      "question": "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:\n\n1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-",
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      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:\n\n1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.\n\n2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.\n\n3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.\n",
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      "question": "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:\n\n1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.",
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