{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5SVWYW2FT8",
  "slug": "ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026",
  "question": "Will a Ukraine peace referendum be passed before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "ukraine-peace",
    "geopolitics",
    "referendum",
    "2026",
    "trump-era",
    "conflict-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Ukraine holds and passes a nationwide peace referendum before end-2026. Resolution depends on an official announcement from the Central Election Commission of Ukraine. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement; absence of a formal CEC announcement leaves the market open through December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2KL7JZCZL9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2KL7JZCZL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5SVWYW2FT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaea40d8fdffd33ead8f696f6b9dc0eb33d5c3ed0d31b57751e255bc7466a5c1d",
      "question": "Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Central Election Commission of Ukraine announces official results of a nationwide referendum on peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the government of Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 61513.05031100003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "peace",
        "referendum",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine peace referendum"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5SVWYW2FT8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}