{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1L07BR8JD5",
  "slug": "ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Ukraine recognize Russian sovereignty over its territory by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-russia",
    "territorial-sovereignty",
    "trump",
    "international-treaties",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over UN-recognized Ukrainian territory. The three Polymarket contracts share identical structure but differ by deadline: December 31, 2025, June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026. The December 2025 contract resolved on January 1, 2026 per its resolve_at timestamp. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the same formal-recognition threshold.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GXKR9JXK02",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x591f785022238c7ea2563553d93c024e451a18ea74d9bbd79a6126c0267c588a",
      "question": "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrai",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Ukraine's formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over UN-recognized territory resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle based on publicly announced mutual agreement before January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:46:29Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question": "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Ukraine's formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over UN-recognized territory resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle based on publicly announced mutual agreement before January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T11:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T11:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n",
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        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 895.1676870000001,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJ8K0973Z8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1L07BR8JD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e4e5225054ad5168e0b249164f643453ba97a8947f84d7aacb4c768275d48e9",
      "question": "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrai",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Ukraine's formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over UN-recognized territory resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle based on publicly announced mutual agreement before January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.\n\nAn official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.\n\nThe April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.\n",
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PNKFDT2GQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T11:00:00Z",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-1L07BR8JD5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}