{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNX2RDMHJ8",
  "slug": "ukraine-strikes-another-tanker-in-caspian-sea-byptptpt-20260726221135931",
  "question": "Will Ukraine strike another tanker in the Caspian Sea by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-russia-conflict",
    "maritime-security",
    "caspian-sea",
    "2026",
    "military-operations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Ukraine executes a confirmed strike on a tanker in the Caspian Sea. The July 31 market resolves earlier; the August 31 market extends the window by one month. Both use Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle for resolution. Traders should note no authoritative single source is named, leaving resolution dependent on UMA disputers.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-17F80BF1F6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17F80BF1F6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNX2RDMHJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb97e8f3d4cdf3d73b36336fa62e6a55cdc6efc81cbc6a789aa311db3ee00bf8",
      "question": "Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T06:24:11Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Caspian Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. \n\nStrikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. \n\nShip seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 150.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 32453.973033000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "caspian sea",
        "naval warfare",
        "tanker",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine caspian sea"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JLTK9P3KS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RNX2RDMHJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9ae50429ae620fb8f3eb8f4c814bee5f4fae7b35e1cb25758e1bfff1f69e5d92",
      "question": "Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Caspian Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. \n\nStrikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. \n\nShip seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 40,
      "volume_total_usd": 2743.033533,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "caspian sea",
        "naval warfare",
        "tanker",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine caspian sea"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17F80BF1F6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-04T06:24:11Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RNX2RDMHJ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}