{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6YW7LXTNS4",
  "slug": "united-x-american-airlines-merger-announced-in-2026",
  "question": "Will United Airlines and American Airlines announce a merger or acquisition by end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "airline-industry",
    "mergers-acquisitions",
    "corporate-announcement",
    "us-economy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a merger or acquisition between United Airlines Holdings and American Airlines Group will be officially announced before year-end 2026. Polymarket structures this as a binary outcome resolving on confirmation from either carrier's official corporate communications. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol. No parallel rate-level or margin structure exists; this is a single binary event on one platform.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-86SFTW29Z4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86SFTW29Z4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6YW7LXTNS4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaf62da76bbaea9f83a75e4f96ee8df0e8956634f17f3190f3f1e32a9eb81d714",
      "question": "United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that American Airlines will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with United Airlines, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving United Airlines, Inc. or its parent company, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., and American Airlines, Inc. or its parent company, American Airlines Group Inc., will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by American Airlines or United Airlines within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An official announcement by American Airlines Group Inc., American Airlines, Inc., United Airlines Holdings, Inc., or United Airlines, Inc. of a merger or acquisition between the two airline groups by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that American Airlines will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with United Airlines, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving United Airlines, Inc. or its parent company, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., and American Airlines, Inc. or its parent company, American Airlines Group Inc., will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by American Airlines or United Airlines within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from United Airlines and American Airlines; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10992.184662000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-32808407DF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "airlines",
        "corporate",
        "mergers and acquisitions",
        "united airlines and"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86SFTW29Z4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6YW7LXTNS4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}