{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NT8N4PCF91",
  "slug": "us-announces-cuba-oil-sanction-relief-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will the US announce Cuba oil sanction relief by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "cuba",
    "sanctions",
    "2026",
    "trump"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US government announces formal oil sanction relief for Cuba across three sequential 2026 deadlines: June 30, September 30, and December 31. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The June 30 contract resolved at 2026-07-01T06:22:35Z. Later strikes function as progressively longer-dated options on the same policy action, with each deadline embedding the prior period's probability.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P05ZHXM6B4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P05ZHXM6B4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NT8N4PCF91",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x29622357277151027e86fdb78bf95a87b87805050b089606762f7e12578a4cc8",
      "question": "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively rel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:22:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.\n\nAn announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Donald Trump",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the US federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 46652.521442999954,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "oil",
        "policy",
        "sanctions",
        "us",
        "us cuba oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92S8308P50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NT8N4PCF91",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x37be6191583e466e8b79e50d27d52a3a74d29024f009268aacb63e4914c78606",
      "question": "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively rel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.\n\nAn announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the US federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T04:00:42.116Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 43.4,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "oil",
        "policy",
        "sanctions",
        "us",
        "us cuba oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S911X8VDG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NT8N4PCF91",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf47f3f75eb6083a0aef673d8700748a5bc4fd471e509472b36f9720605b97171",
      "question": "US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively rel",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.\n\nAn announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": null,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "oil",
        "policy",
        "sanctions",
        "us",
        "us cuba oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P05ZHXM6B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:22:35Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NT8N4PCF91",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}