{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPY930NRD7",
  "slug": "us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080",
  "question": "Will the US announce an end to the Iranian blockade by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "us-iran-relations",
    "sanctions-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US officially announces an end to its Iranian blockade across nine sequential deadline dates in 2026. All nine are Polymarket binary contracts; each later strike subsumes the prior, forming an implied probability term structure across July through December 2026. Prices across strikes reveal the market's cumulative hazard rate for a blockade-end announcement over time. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XTMGKNNQC6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.003,
    "implied_probability": 0.003,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPY930NRD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7a2c3834179dd8ff73efd60e4cd984a16e16066f5ca20c863ab9ed6d5c53e139",
      "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-25T06:06:03Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.\n",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "platform_market_id": "0x8b0e301fc552e953579c625ce9adb7409d1852d5bf4879efee849decc1c9dc91",
      "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:04:17Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.\n",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPY930NRD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa055e1cf533c2fcb1f1c89c20c41c8aa25526dcf27c3ff6be69c230fd8898282",
      "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-15T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.\n",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government",
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        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "price_as_of": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8KN3YWXT29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPY930NRD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x47ec761ae98d7c28b20c0222f1507e3af0f198a904f86b4a264b2e987f0b80c7",
      "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.\n",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D6R39NQJ34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPY930NRD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50826ce1dd96f5cea87cd8287e24941f8ead2a034e55ad5754bdb408707168ec",
      "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 14: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-15T06:06:02Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n\nAnonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\nStatements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\nThird-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;\nSatirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and\nStatements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.\n",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "sanctions",
        "us announces iranian",
        "us-iran"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K3DZY54VT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPY930NRD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x46ca741da4abd7ffa993f59ac65bfe83de43ae027accac71d263a493e44064e7",
      "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
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