{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
  "slug": "us-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622192051747",
  "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "diplomatic-negotiations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US will formally announce withdrawal from unspecified MOU negotiations across seven binary deadline strikes. All seven markets are structured on Polymarket and priced as binary outcomes at escalating deadlines from June 26 through August 31, 2026. The June 26 market resolved at 2026-06-27T07:01:22Z per Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Later deadlines remain open, creating an implicit term structure of withdrawal probability across the calendar.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2YWV1HY9Z8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FWR6MKGZZ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xebcd9c5828dbe6901c9412d9078a8d511403f77ec21e70aba71c3cadd4100a05",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 26: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T07:01:22Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.025,
      "implied_probability": 0.025,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 27637.343988,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QT7WFRF3K0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x78b2557d0e743b8bfa1c944ddbb116aabf2a9bd602e1880ede71f8e27dfe363f",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T13:43:25Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 43641.99723299997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2YWV1HY9Z8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5fe50c3617f3a7385aaaa076897b60ca9312dfe67252b0581a688af31b7961ca",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9018.198756000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 591907.9503739992,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PR991GGQ47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd45d5aefae8df5671c0ca8feebc4ebefd6b16e8e883d207298b2f5d828e19c0e",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 10: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T06:05:40Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 78454.79402099997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P7J4VLLYM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x915dd9e35a242624df721871c609d23b74242a766b86bd70496afd23c99e7f98",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4136.409147,
      "volume_total_usd": 104662.12743999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-59S4SLK517",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb902718882142144d23d1c9fc4f5abd5e9ff9c897cdb89514cd9be59085d1966",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-18T06:08:27Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 200027.23987699999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KCWFGKFMR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2258f2dbb3a36f386851a77b65d4bcc16d0a2384a14990bd146d7f6e49719bb5",
      "question": "Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?",
      "description": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.\n\nA qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.\n\nThe following do not qualify:\n- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;\n- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;\n- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;\n- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;\n- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;\n- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and\n- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.\n\nResolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11702.101587,
      "volume_total_usd": 108116.19826999988,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mou",
        "negotiations",
        "us",
        "us mou negotiations",
        "withdrawal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-59S4SLK517",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-18T06:08:27Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PR991GGQ47",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-11T06:05:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QT7WFRF3K0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T13:43:25Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FWR6MKGZZ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T07:01:22Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9RG1P4JLP7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}