{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-833DXLL460",
  "slug": "us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-us-by-20260616214856017",
  "question": "Will the U.S. conduct an anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "drug-enforcement",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets ask whether the U.S. will conduct an anti-cartel military or law-enforcement operation on foreign soil. The June 30 market closes at the end of Q2 2026; the July 31 market extends the deadline by one month. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The structural difference is deadline horizon: one prices near-term execution risk, the other prices a one-month extension of that same binary outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W678116SS4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y6LY7K3133",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-833DXLL460",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3a8ae280020bfd10d2c42e96b1af0200c048f29db3c3c0802681032b636a4224",
      "question": "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.\n\nOnly direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming cons",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T02:15:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.\n\nOnly direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín \"El Chapo\" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from the U.S. government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "an overwhelming consensus of reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 12,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3364.565306,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anti cartel operation",
        "antitrust",
        "cartel",
        "international",
        "u.s. government"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W678116SS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-833DXLL460",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee78796c2501ccee253b7b3fc9ebda254acb4c82c424db2dd24fc6b16885417d",
      "question": "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.\n\nOnly direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming cons",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.\n\nOnly direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín \"El Chapo\" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from the U.S. government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "an overwhelming consensus of reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 12,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.145257,
      "volume_total_usd": 22385.804129,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anti cartel operation",
        "antitrust",
        "cartel",
        "international",
        "u.s. government"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y6LY7K3133",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-04T02:15:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-833DXLL460",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}