{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-92G8YGKV65",
  "slug": "us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232",
  "question": "Will the US charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "economic-sanctions",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US government will impose transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The four Polymarket contracts share a binary structure but stagger deadlines across July 17, July 31, August 31, and December 31, 2026. Earlier strikes resolve first, creating an implicit term structure of geopolitical risk. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with no independent institutional publisher designated as authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TWKH519P11",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWKH519P11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-92G8YGKV65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6de39962b3eba1c2b9f769a9e2160af303787ab8177793738f5c9bf177ce764d",
      "question": "US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-18T07:06:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.\n\nThe announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPayments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 393550.2626019999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "hormuz",
        "strait",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us hormuz strait"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q73FFZP9W5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-92G8YGKV65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0f4f0fe506891f560fb594af964dc5f75e378c22341b4c6311f73bf0ea6d0eb5",
      "question": "US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.\n\nThe announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPayments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1031.67,
      "volume_total_usd": 279850.8688929999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "us",
        "us hormuz strait"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-748KZVY9M9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-92G8YGKV65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcb8fb30139fe8af02654cc3b734a482a0eafd9d5c2de2eef2aa145daf8b65615",
      "question": "US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.\n\nThe announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPayments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "volume_24h_usd": 372.82,
      "volume_total_usd": 106037.81229399994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "hormuz",
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        "us",
        "us hormuz strait"
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-92G8YGKV65",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d291f1e9f4b5bc7061ea1e7a396f527a0fb5e24cd353d31885a81fb3189f067",
      "question": "US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nAny payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.\n\nThe announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPayments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-18T07:06:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-92G8YGKV65",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}