{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4K3BQFVQD9",
  "slug": "us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027",
  "question": "Will the United States default on its debt by 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-debt-default",
    "fiscal-crisis",
    "economy",
    "politics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary probability of a U.S. sovereign debt default occurring before 2027. Resolution requires public confirmation from the U.S. Department of the Treasury or a major rating agency. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FLK9TQP319",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.037,
    "implied_probability": 0.037
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FLK9TQP319",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4K3BQFVQD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5b9cb2fbdfb50eae19a1fdd228487ff797fab1539a1e74565b5e6ad3b586368b",
      "question": "US defaults on debt by 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch publicly confirming a U.S. sovereign debt default between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fitch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.037,
      "implied_probability": 0.037,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 15950.691170000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-823611A761",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "debt",
        "default",
        "sovereign",
        "us",
        "us sovereign debt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4K3BQFVQD9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}