{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
  "slug": "us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026",
  "question": "Will the US economy be in recession at the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "soft-landing",
    "us-economic-conditions",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These four Polymarket markets jointly map the four exhaustive quadrants of a two-variable macro grid using December 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The unemployment threshold is 5.0% and the inflation threshold is 3.5%, defining soft landing, stagflation, overheating, and slack as mutually exclusive outcomes. Exactly one contract resolves YES; the set sums to certainty. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the BLS December 2026 seasonally adjusted figures, with a final settlement date of January 31, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J547LJHRL2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.59,
    "implied_probability": 0.59
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J547LJHRL2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8",
      "question": "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the Decem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%): Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2026 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) 12-month percent change, reported in January 2027 Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Employment Situation release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Consumer Price Index release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24,
      "volume_total_usd": 29503.31032800001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-534611296D",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RKJGXSLS1",
          "price": 0.54
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "economy",
        "inflation",
        "soft-landing",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-14CJ6D8PN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774",
      "question": "Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the Decem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2026 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) 12-month percent change, reported in January 2027 Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Employment Situation release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Consumer Price Index release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.099,
      "implied_probability": 0.099,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1074,
      "volume_total_usd": 7411.501204,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DF50C877D3",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFLMG6PKS0",
          "price": 0.121
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "economy",
        "inflation",
        "stagflation",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4TD5VR3QY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e54fc57fcd566b9c7a25fe7a6ed9596ffe1eb95489ba25575b1c4af0ac798f6",
      "question": "Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the Decem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2026 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) 12-month percent change, reported in January 2027 Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Employment Situation release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Consumer Price Index release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 48.66,
      "volume_total_usd": 20718.591966999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-640B490EAB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economy",
        "inflation",
        "overheating",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HD934441M1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x53ba15f24a0194c2ef422cc023d26e86ab03a7fd36a62cb8c0eacf5c2a22cae0",
      "question": "Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the Decem",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%): Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2026 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) 12-month percent change, reported in January 2027 Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Employment Situation release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Consumer Price Index release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 28.159999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 1867.3355399999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5936F69FF5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economy",
        "inflation",
        "slack",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}