{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BGSVHQQQD7",
  "slug": "us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will the U.S. evacuate the Beirut Embassy by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "lebanon-crisis",
    "embassy-operations",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the U.S. government evacuates its Beirut Embassy within two defined windows. Both markets are Polymarket binary outcomes, resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The June 30 market closes ahead of the December 31 market, creating a near-term versus extended-horizon spread. Traders can express views on both timing and probability of evacuation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D9XK829C06",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9XK829C06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BGSVHQQQD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3b6fb103f3376484ad3b44577b96079662aeb6c3c08e943ffad34758287e4a5f",
      "question": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:04:10Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from the U.S. government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 94102.51160999987,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beirut embassy evacuation",
        "embassy",
        "geopolitics",
        "lebanon",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XXC4TCJJF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BGSVHQQQD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8e08f871fffce4bb1f6c8e8e76d36bdced4edc53d9b9c8bc2fdfac9b0341053f",
      "question": "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAnnouncements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from the U.S. government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 149.832388,
      "volume_total_usd": 25132.710731,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beirut embassy evacuation",
        "embassy",
        "geopolitics",
        "lebanon",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9XK829C06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:04:10Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BGSVHQQQD7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}