{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VBPCVC5TZ5",
  "slug": "us-federally-charges-cuba-leader-miguel-diaz-canel",
  "question": "Will the US federally charge Cuba's leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "us-cuba-relations",
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "international-law",
    "2026",
    "criminal-charges"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the US Department of Justice files federal charges against Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel by two separate deadlines in 2026. Both markets are Polymarket binary contracts, differing only in time horizon: June 30 versus December 31. The cross-platform insight is a staggered-deadline structure, where the June 30 market prices near-term prosecution probability and the December 31 market prices full-year probability. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0LJJ4Y6WW3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.005,
    "implied_probability": 0.005,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PLRJV33H83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VBPCVC5TZ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61caf2b8be81cef186016a0f39831b7e87f6b543dbd2226b8c831c47f5d66001",
      "question": "US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "US governmental sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T00:00:40.112Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 90.46,
      "volume_total_usd": 40427.231961,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "miguel diaz canel",
        "political",
        "us-federal-charges"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0LJJ4Y6WW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VBPCVC5TZ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32c4ee69bd0d9b4d4512af6abd49e0de43108d4cb41077cd1142010e2ed567aa",
      "question": "US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T05:46:19Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "US governmental sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 54055.667861999944,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "miguel diaz canel",
        "political",
        "us-federal-charges"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0LJJ4Y6WW3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-02T05:46:19Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VBPCVC5TZ5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}