{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5LVQVPB08",
  "slug": "us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027",
  "question": "Will U.S. forces be deployed in Gaza before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-military",
    "gaza-conflict",
    "middle-east",
    "2026",
    "military-deployment"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary probability that active U.S. military personnel physically enter Gaza's terrestrial territory before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket contract structures the event as a yes/no outcome with no tiered or magnitude component. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which evaluates whether the physical entry condition was satisfied. The authoritative determination rests on verifiable reporting of regular U.S. force deployment inside Gaza.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NN480BBWN9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NN480BBWN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B5LVQVPB08",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x10dc09c7fb32ce782e2f1f383eb84c2b5434281f488e6eb6651b2a7d91ac3d34",
      "question": "U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether active regular U.S. military personnel physically entered Gaza's terrestrial territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nUS military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.\n\nHigh ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.299564,
      "volume_total_usd": 183384.7363569999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "deployment",
        "gaza",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "military deployment gaza",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-B5LVQVPB08",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}