{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L38GX1VTW0",
  "slug": "us-forces-in-venezuela-again-by",
  "question": "Will US forces enter Venezuela by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "venezuela",
    "military-intervention",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether US military forces will re-enter Venezuela by successive deadlines in early 2026. The four Polymarket contracts share identical structure but vary by expiration: January 10, January 31, March 31, and June 30. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The January 31 contract has reached its resolve date; the remaining contracts extend the timeline through mid-2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2GF45KXHD0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SB01YW34J4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L38GX1VTW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff78bad30c99e8eed16b577a70b9fcfe69b83d1c838f238d3f84dcd3d2c94701",
      "question": "US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 230935.8129509997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "us military",
        "us military intervention",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2GF45KXHD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L38GX1VTW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3f8c674a155ca643341200af3bc4dfc61a825f0c2de3d384df0707f11321de9c",
      "question": "US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 569370.209279,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "venezuela"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8GQ0XTQYG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L38GX1VTW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf5000584b3e64d08651ab372bb7f847e13e4be6c657ce0dbca94c1f480fa65d9",
      "question": "US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 10: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 510718.772992,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "us military",
        "us military intervention",
        "venezuela"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NZ7WV33R21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L38GX1VTW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x921253bd4fd083913072aa7f206a0967d22817d647e38abf4199326796f7dcdd",
      "question": "US forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nMilitary special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. \n\nUS military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.\n\nMilitary contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SB01YW34J4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:31:35Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NZ7WV33R21",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-10T07:05:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2GF45KXHD0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-01T07:58:44Z",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8GQ0XTQYG2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-11T08:18:58Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-L38GX1VTW0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}