{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NLJKWCBKX4",
  "slug": "us-government-removes-public-access-to-another-anthropic-ai-model-in-2026-20260703203121674",
  "question": "Will the US Government remove public access to another Anthropic AI model by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-regulation",
    "anthropic",
    "us-government",
    "model-access",
    "tech-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the US federal government restricts public access to an additional Anthropic AI model by December 31, 2026. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, evaluating federal legislation, executive orders, or equivalent directives. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. The resolution scope hinges on what constitutes a qualifying government action against a named Anthropic model.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1WBH2ZRG79",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.24,
    "implied_probability": 0.24
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1WBH2ZRG79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NLJKWCBKX4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1d5e81db35e1eb40ad4647e2871f06af7b7127ba0e2180b9f18dc6b5e2f5b8e8",
      "question": "US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?",
      "description": "This market resolves \"Yes\" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the US federal government passed legislation, issued an executive order, issued an export control, or took other formal action removing public US access to an Anthropic AI model by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market resolves \"Yes\" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves \"No\".\n\nA qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.\n\nThe action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.\n\nThe removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information and announcements from the United States government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 190.81,
      "volume_total_usd": 21456.495335000018,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-76244EAA3F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic ai model",
        "regulation",
        "us-government"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NLJKWCBKX4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}