{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3",
  "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31",
  "question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by July 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nuclear-diplomacy",
    "middle-east",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "treaty-negotiation",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary probability of a formal US-Iran nuclear agreement by July 31, 2026. Resolution requires a public announcement of mutual agreement, assessed through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform divergence exists. Traders should note that informal framework deals or partial accords may not satisfy the resolution threshold.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GL804RL128",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL804RL128",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbdb44ce1624dbf80fe70a96e7cb027b854aa44c52cf87a6bd0bc9ea2c332c3dc",
      "question": "US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the J",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on public announcement of a mutual agreement between the United States and Iran regarding nuclear research or weapons by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 61839.432417000025,
      "volume_total_usd": 286958.59107599984,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "nuclear",
        "us iran nuclear"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL804RL128",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}