{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6STHYHXFK2",
  "slug": "us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784",
  "question": "Will the US lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "us-turkey",
    "sanctions",
    "caatsa",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the U.S. formally lifts Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act sanctions imposed on Turkey over its S-400 purchase. All three contracts are Polymarket binary outcomes, resolving via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle at sequential deadlines: July 31, October 31, and December 31, 2026. The tiered structure prices cumulative probability of relief, with each later contract subsuming the prior. Resolution hinges on official U.S. government action; no executive guidance or congressional waiver has been confirmed as of April 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SPW92BJCR3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SPW92BJCR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6STHYHXFK2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0566ac1c3ddf4b66450cc989c28df26a06748239a7284d1b2e5099d48049200c",
      "question": "Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift ​sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, term",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift ​sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.\n\nQualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.\n\nActions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.\n\nOnce a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "2017-2021.state.gov",
            "url": "https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "2021.state.gov",
            "url": "2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "United States federal government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11118.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 14025.454817000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "sanctions",
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        "us caatsa sanctions",
        "us-foreign-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NYPZQFZKC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6STHYHXFK2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdab5bbe10e1ed098b8e92aae92195d5c1c94152ab34c76c6d8b3a0a6af2aed81",
      "question": "Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift ​sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, term",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift ​sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.\n\nQualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.\n\nActions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.\n\nOnce a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "2017-2021.state.gov",
            "url": "https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "2021.state.gov",
            "url": "2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "United States federal government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.43,
      "implied_probability": 0.43,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1407.5955510000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "caatsa",
        "sanctions",
        "turkey",
        "us caatsa sanctions",
        "us-foreign-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CMCB87NV46",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6STHYHXFK2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8dcfaba48b64919f64ab8d728182b78957305eb9baecd2533ff9839440c85581",
      "question": "Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift ​sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, term",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift ​sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.\n\nQualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.\n\nActions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.\n\nOnce a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "2017-2021.state.gov",
            "url": "https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "name": "2021.state.gov",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.54,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "us caatsa sanctions",
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6STHYHXFK2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}