{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBG484BV28",
  "slug": "us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the US military draft be authorized by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "military-policy",
    "us-domestic",
    "2026",
    "conscription"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Congress passes and the U.S. president signs legislation authorizing military draft induction or Selective Service activation before December 31, 2026. A single binary outcome is priced on Polymarket; no rate-level or margin equivalent exists on a second platform. Resolution requires enacted law, not executive order or administrative action alone. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle adjudicates the outcome against that legislative threshold.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-401JF88Q91",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.055,
    "implied_probability": 0.055
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-401JF88Q91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBG484BV28",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0734eb61d07f694bde1da2619cfb75d2a052b8f173180fb050894c30d73de98c",
      "question": "US military draft authorized in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nLegislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Legislation signed into law by the U.S. president authorizing military draft induction or Selective Service activation by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nLegislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.055,
      "implied_probability": 0.055,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1863.337271,
      "volume_total_usd": 513666.707228999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "draft",
        "military",
        "policy",
        "us",
        "us military draft"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NBG484BV28",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}