{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49",
  "slug": "us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the United States establish a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "us-policy",
    "crypto-regulation",
    "government-reserves",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices a binary outcome: whether the US government formally establishes a national Bitcoin reserve before December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on official US government or Federal Reserve announcements confirming Bitcoin held in national reserves. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement. No cross-platform contrast exists; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-92F45J7B62",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.16,
    "implied_probability": 0.16
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92F45J7B62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2",
      "question": "US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from the US government or Federal Reserve regarding Bitcoin held in US reserves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the US federal reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 317.17999199999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 49529.16030500003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C4CDA4B41",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "reserve",
        "us national bitcoin",
        "us policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}