{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
  "slug": "us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",
  "question": "Will the US obtain Iranian enriched uranium by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-nuclear",
    "diplomacy-conflict",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US will physically obtain Iranian enriched uranium by sequential calendar deadlines in 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome priced at a different tenor, forming an implicit term structure of geopolitical risk. Earlier-expiry contracts trade at a discount to later ones, embedding a forward probability curve across the May through December window. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against an official US government or military announcement confirming physical possession.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4BRZNDF833",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T06:05:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qu",
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      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?",
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      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?",
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