{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
  "slug": "us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",
  "question": "Will the US obtain Iranian enriched uranium by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-nuclear",
    "trump-administration",
    "diplomatic-acquisition",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US government takes physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium by successive deadline dates through December 31, 2026. All eight contracts are structured as binary outcomes on the same underlying event, with tenor-staggered expiries creating an implicit term structure of probability. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against an official US government or military announcement confirming possession. Near-term contracts price a tighter window; longer-dated contracts embed cumulative probability across the full horizon.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4BRZNDF833",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZ1T15SCW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd87a0ee5367e38072ac013e99035672125fee3a3f4446f0389fe806e42e3e42e",
      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not quali",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: An official US government or military announcement confirming physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium resolves the market by June 1, 2026, 6:05 AM ET via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:29:44Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1163934.4307450012,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "us obtains iranian",
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      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qu",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: An official US government or military announcement confirming physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium resolves the market by June 1, 2026, 6:05 AM ET via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3PJF95L498",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc112ff35c760ee66738e288067c3de90a2b44a28a9e2f4488989d498be03b292",
      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualif",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30: An official US government or military announcement confirming physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium resolves the market by June 1, 2026, 6:05 AM ET via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:09:26Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xef5365cb2973f77e162709e007e0da70d06e8ff1e115372beb437d64326efd76",
      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualif",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? ",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualif",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x720e3088802a33c3607cbff579d67a6e5c42f6e0196470a447f108f9d005557f",
      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not q",
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      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8bf79620792c8452d889c11f61b4ee05d06f4ed2ea2fb5c689d6ff15e8ce311b",
      "question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: An official US government or military announcement confirming physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium resolves the market by June 1, 2026, 6:05 AM ET via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "volume_total_usd": 65752.66253100001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: An official US government or military announcement confirming physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium resolves the market by June 1, 2026, 6:05 AM ET via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
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      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "final_price": null,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-22ZJSSW3F1",
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      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3PJF95L498",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:09:26Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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    {
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      "event_type": "status_change",
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      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}