{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4",
  "slug": "us-recession-by-end-of-2026",
  "question": "Will the United States enter a recession by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economic-contraction",
    "us-economy",
    "macro-indicators",
    "2026-resolution",
    "gdp-growth"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the probability of a US recession occurring before December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly real GDP data and National Bureau of Economic Research recession determinations. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement. No cross-platform contrast exists; only one market is listed under this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2R0FDQP7J6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.12,
    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2R0FDQP7J6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d",
      "question": "US recession by end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:\n\n1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \n\n2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.\n\nOtherwise, this marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly real GDP growth reports and National Bureau of Economic Research recession announcements through Q4 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:\n\n1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \n\n2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nNote that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to \"Yes\". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to \"Yes\" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.\n\nThe resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.692306,
      "volume_total_usd": 1681860.8788879977,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2FB03D51D4",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2KPGKG5R5",
          "price": 0.18
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "macro",
        "recession",
        "us",
        "us recession"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}