{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFL0CVVBJ1",
  "slug": "us-recognizes-machado-as-leader-of-venezuela-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will the U.S. recognize Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "venezuela",
    "diplomatic-recognition",
    "machado",
    "2026",
    "us-foreign-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the Trump administration will formally recognize Maria Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires a direct, unqualified U.S. government announcement naming Machado as leader. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement; ambiguous or qualified U.S. statements may trigger dispute escalation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V2S6Y0YGB0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V2S6Y0YGB0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PFL0CVVBJ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x23740503b6cbf73007c39facab4399ac7fafaebbdf5ab4092bf5671b1de5b3a0",
      "question": "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"president,\" or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A direct, unqualified announcement by the Trump administration recognizing Maria Corina Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"president,\" or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government and Donald Trump",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 178730.70716200015,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "machado",
        "political recognition",
        "recognition machado as",
        "u.s. foreign policy",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PFL0CVVBJ1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}