{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0SWQB28081",
  "slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
  "question": "Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-policy",
    "us-diplomacy",
    "regime-change",
    "2026",
    "trump-administration"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the Trump administration formally recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before December 31, 2026. Only one platform structures this event, as a binary outcome on Polymarket. Resolution requires an official Trump administration announcement confirming recognition. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle serves as the resolution mechanism.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QXDPBY68Z6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.041,
    "implied_probability": 0.041
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QXDPBY68Z6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0SWQB28081",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
      "question": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolutio",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An official Trump administration announcement recognizing Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Donald Trump",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.041,
      "implied_probability": 0.041,
      "volume_24h_usd": 444.05,
      "volume_total_usd": 616539.2366750033,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "regime change",
        "reza pahlavi",
        "us foreign policy",
        "us recognition reza"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0SWQB28081",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}