{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J7B7M85X44",
  "slug": "us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the U.S. recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "russia-ukraine",
    "crimea",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the U.S. formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome directly. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing U.S. Government formal recognition or credible reporting consensus. No Kalshi equivalent exists here, so no cross-platform structural contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LFNS6S2BW4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LFNS6S2BW4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J7B7M85X44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x03e12e22b76bdd21d24a3d8e03e0a8bc724c9a94705fc8f65a82ba27cdace6dc",
      "question": "U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? ",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. \n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "U.S. Government formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over the majority of Crimea, or credible reporting consensus thereof, by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. \n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the U.S. Government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 64966.642166000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crimea",
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "recognition russian crimea",
        "russia",
        "u.s."
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-J7B7M85X44",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}