{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99",
  "slug": "us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukraine-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the US recognize Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "ukraine-russia",
    "sovereignty-recognition",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket binary contract prices the yes/no outcome. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which evaluates official U.S. government statements or actions. No threshold for partial recognition is defined, making scope interpretation a key caveat.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-G3S2W7PYF0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G3S2W7PYF0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4f192d856071c86b7a480c5b0bdd38318ec7be0bf2430784acacbe77bf12fcc9",
      "question": "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nUkrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nDonald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. \n\nStatement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. \n\nUkrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.\n\nThe resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official U.S. government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible reporting from major news organizations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 300,
      "volume_total_usd": 135763.3055630001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "russia",
        "ukraine",
        "us recognition russian",
        "us-foreign-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}