{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BY129R8KX7",
  "slug": "us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046",
  "question": "Will the US reissue Iran oil sales sanction relief by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-sanctions",
    "oil-markets",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether the US formally reissues relief on Iran oil sales sanctions. The July 31 contract closes earlier, creating a binary sequencing structure: the August 31 market remains live if the first resolves negative. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against a Treasury or State Department official announcement. The staggered deadlines price timing risk, not directional divergence.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-974VS8XN06",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.036,
    "implied_probability": 0.036,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-974VS8XN06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BY129R8KX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8a0beb83f19c24d8682e63ec020d689e4b0582fe830cd9416bd041644153a6d6",
      "question": "US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?",
      "description": "On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction reli",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: The United States Department of the Treasury or State Department official announcement of a new sanctions waiver, license, or relief mechanism for Iranian oil or petroleum products by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:50:24Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.\n\nQualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.\n\nContinued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.\n\nOnce a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "thehill.com",
            "url": "https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from the United States federal government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 88881.65846099998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "oil",
        "sanctions",
        "us",
        "us iran oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HQ4N12KFC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BY129R8KX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7de40f0990c2598fdaff0d259d0b2bad2dc284d74c510530c740f18394a6771d",
      "question": "US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?",
      "description": "On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction reli",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: The United States Department of the Treasury or State Department official announcement of a new sanctions waiver, license, or relief mechanism for Iranian oil or petroleum products by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nActions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.\n\nQualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.\n\nContinued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.\n\nOnce a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "thehill.com",
            "url": "https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from the United States federal government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 78,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1625.17285,
      "volume_total_usd": 32033.218739000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "oil",
        "sanctions",
        "us",
        "us iran oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-974VS8XN06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-01T06:50:24Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BY129R8KX7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}