{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BF5TXDDWX0",
  "slug": "us-strike-on-cuba-by",
  "question": "Will there be US military action against Cuba by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "military-action",
    "cuba",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks the probability of US military action against Cuba across three sequential deadline windows in 2026. All three markets are Polymarket binary contracts resolving via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Each contract prices the same directional outcome but at a different expiry: January 31, March 31, and December 31. The January 31 and March 31 markets have already passed their resolve_at timestamp of April 3, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5YQC3NMPZ0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.33,
    "implied_probability": 0.33
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F0NNKBC315",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BF5TXDDWX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x403b8deb760c51691df6dcc9a6aa080846ecd280d49d3786865c2d9846180aaa",
      "question": "US strike on Cuba by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed coun",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-03T06:49:57Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 22,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1644627.4757650006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strike"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PVT9S9L5Y6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BF5TXDDWX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ee3f6ddc9c95725ccfb18ae98ec62531dd72d218b963a11c6282218c5535f5b",
      "question": "US strike on Cuba by January 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed coun",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-03T07:51:36Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 22,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 534477.448678,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strike"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YQC3NMPZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BF5TXDDWX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0",
      "question": "US strike on Cuba by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed coun",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 22,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3588.772722,
      "volume_total_usd": 4867650.264293043,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us",
        "us military strike"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F0NNKBC315",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-03T06:49:57Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PVT9S9L5Y6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-03T07:51:36Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BF5TXDDWX0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}