{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3Z52HRKN2",
  "slug": "us-takes-panama-canal-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the US take Panama Canal before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "panama-canal",
    "trump",
    "2026",
    "territorial-dispute"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary outcome of whether the United States assumes primary operational authority over the Panama Canal before 2027. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which evaluates whether that control threshold is met. A single platform covers this event; no cross-platform structural contrast exists. Operational authority, not diplomatic posture or treaty negotiation, is the resolution trigger.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y03Y65SCC8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y03Y65SCC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-W3Z52HRKN2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0686076be591223c6da6a594c12b4a47083fbd77a37ddc96f484eba3b13e3669",
      "question": "US takes Panama Canal before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether the United States assumes primary operational authority over the Panama Canal by December 31, 2026, confirmed by official announcement or agreement.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.\n\nAn official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 523.833332,
      "volume_total_usd": 113554.13747000012,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "panama",
        "panama canal control",
        "us-foreign-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-W3Z52HRKN2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}