{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
  "slug": "us-trade-deficit-in-2026",
  "question": "US Trade Deficit in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-trade-deficit",
    "economic-indicator",
    "trump",
    "2027-resolution",
    "international-trade"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the full-year 2026 U.S. goods and services trade deficit, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau. Eight mutually exclusive Polymarket brackets span sub-$500B to $1.1T or more, forming a discrete probability distribution over the deficit range. All eight resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the joint BEA/Census \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release, expected by February 2027. No cross-platform markets exist here; the entire structure is Polymarket's bracket-based approach to a single continuous outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KH2K4T84S6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.048,
    "implied_probability": 0.048
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KH2K4T84S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaaf3bc4e63735b3bfcc7a008e00ce7466a699584a50e92d94cd256a0ced72a7c",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<500B: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.048,
      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16833.295994999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 500000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6DFA167D46",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GBRTWKK878",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac9d6105090f5e372ceb14422889be27f4a07a8b10497786d2df5946d0d7e9c7",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "600–700B: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.123,
      "implied_probability": 0.123,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 533.338375,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-19E74814F2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJ3K1FVB16",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd3c6552a51528c74c28471aa0a5e13fbafdf84f02a40d11bf173b94032b7e7ef",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "800–900B: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1498.8920340000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D7A14A82CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LBMDYH5435",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x26b69058c1c2c53a8e439504a8755ce75d469ba3a1c82bca934ea7a46f26529e",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "900B–1T: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1340.0941500000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-49849F430D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0FR39Z6RR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x306b01a825a423668beec573456610843ad4c47f72d1fb70d880f55b10109d91",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.1T+: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1092.6797740000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1100000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-DC15B79E10",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GW1K8ZVRY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4984dbde0e85feab501afae35635c01581d632dbd671d00e81709fd1801605b8",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "500–600B: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 433.344829,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C20E7D0AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LLC24N1PR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x17ac7b249bf0672209617e31a6b56eb79ffa056dc9a3e873b2baba2276675cf4",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "700–800B: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 658.641301,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C20E7D0AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YQDCXDMGD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9bf22c2451daab2017ba08fc2f2fcc96a37e3f8c7c091d14fa7d719d2d8f6a74",
      "question": "Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1T–1.1T: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau's \"U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services\" release for December and Annual 2026, expected February 2027, determines the annual goods and services deficit figure.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.\n\nUpon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases\n\nThe relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.\n\nNote: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "US Census Bureau (USCB)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1433.67741,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C20E7D0AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "deficit",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us trade deficit"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}