{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-52GRJCHNR9",
  "slug": "us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will the US and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-china-relations",
    "trade-policy",
    "tariffs",
    "2026",
    "trump-administration"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States and China publicly announce a mutual, finalized tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the outcome as yes or no. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring a public, mutual, finalized announcement to settle affirmatively. No corroborating platform structures this event at a different level or granularity.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YN73ZPS5Z9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.76,
    "implied_probability": 0.76
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YN73ZPS5Z9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-52GRJCHNR9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf9c12aa09c5317d1cf8d26d0dc100a69ecf70e5132e81ef078d5336f63923b5e",
      "question": "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nInformal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.\n\nThe publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether the United States and China publicly announce a mutual, finalized tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nInformal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.\n\nThe publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15,
      "volume_total_usd": 16826.391861,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "agreement",
        "china",
        "tariffs",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us china tariff"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-52GRJCHNR9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}