{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4DRD7SDM3",
  "slug": "us-x-cuba-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260616212816384",
  "question": "Will the US and Cuba hold a diplomatic meeting by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "us-cuba-relations",
    "diplomatic-engagement",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a formal US-Cuba diplomatic meeting occurs by sequential deadlines in 2026. Each contract is a binary on the same underlying event, structured as a tenor ladder: June 30, July 31, August 31, and October 31. Later-dated contracts must price at least as high as nearer ones. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable meeting evidence.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YQL74484C7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.2
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "question": "US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:38:34Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6639.599851,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "us",
        "us cuba diplomatic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "question": "US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 347.283188,
      "volume_total_usd": 14669.242976,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "us",
        "us cuba diplomatic"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YBPBQ6PV16",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4DRD7SDM3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3b44c42caa2324fbade156c3e99e2c22d2035ba6877691d756dfe912e6e40b86",
      "question": "US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "us",
        "us cuba diplomatic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z4DRD7SDM3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0f3c108b211e6b1d93ae3475a03bd9e28593f5b29b4f4732623f63f56f6a0d37",
      "question": "US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with th",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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