{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
  "slug": "us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by",
  "question": "Will the United States and Cuba reach an economic deal?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-cuba-relations",
    "economic-deal",
    "trade-policy",
    "2026",
    "diplomatic-negotiation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US and Cuba will reach an economic deal by sequential deadlines across 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome on the same underlying event, with progressively longer time horizons through December 31, 2026. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The April 30 market carries a resolve_at of May 1, 2026, reflecting post-deadline settlement lag.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XYK47SCS15",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJ208D1QY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6cff6ebb83970f5f95b839cd9c104dd60c65015bf7c4cd45d3031fcc6774065",
      "question": "US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T06:55:36Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nOnly deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting  will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcement by the United States and Cuba",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 135998.409011,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "diplomacy",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us cuba economic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "question": "US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nOnly deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting  will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 61.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 156639.6496579997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
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        "trade",
        "us",
        "us cuba economic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0M1C676TW2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x789d388bafe08b6c17fefb96ec7ebadc6e997e0883eae5e4918354218e6dd52d",
      "question": "US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nOnly deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting  will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.015,
      "implied_probability": 0.015,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.0202,
      "volume_total_usd": 88782.70865599993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "diplomacy",
        "trade",
        "us",
        "us cuba economic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-679VMZMG00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca0162ce2961b6c92161382eaf7948a764e7afc6e2b58a476bdc89313c969fa9",
      "question": "US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nOnly deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting  will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 53.32558,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "us",
        "us cuba economic"
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XYK47SCS15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KJ208D1QY7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T06:55:36Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}