{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T058B09Y3",
  "slug": "us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026",
  "question": "Will there be a US-Cuba military clash in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "us-cuba-relations",
    "military-conflict",
    "geopolitics",
    "caribbean-security",
    "trump",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a direct military encounter involving force occurs between US and Cuban military forces in 2026. Resolution runs to December 31, 2026, via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The key caveat is definitional: the oracle must determine whether an engagement constitutes a qualifying use of force, not merely a provocation or incident at sea.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QQYP92SGM2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.3,
    "implied_probability": 0.3
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QQYP92SGM2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T058B09Y3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x333455a7be2dad4c981b49d700b80a0497c0274f72be3ab633a9ec020e80e884",
      "question": "US x Cuba military clash in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass thro",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether a military encounter involving force between US and Cuban military forces occurred between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 472.257139,
      "volume_total_usd": 230738.26104299986,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "us cuba military",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-7T058B09Y3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}