{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
  "slug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
  "question": "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "diplomacy",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US and Iran will conclude a permanent peace deal by various deadlines spanning April through December 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome tied to a specific cutoff date; earlier strikes are nested within later ones, creating an implicit term structure of diplomatic probability. All 17 markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring explicit documentation of permanent cessation of military hostilities. The resolution threshold is strict: a ceasefire or framework agreement alone would not satisfy the permanence criterion.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5J0D99KYF0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4XYZT0DPC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbbc6689d0f6d57ea42168836712237c7308b3e0118c8914d31b6126d0f3254c5",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 22: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-23T07:34:32Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 26051734.516940523,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-84LMN55RD4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xceb6dfaa2cf5abc9d47ebc867b984a7715104944249274e8a483a2e17473e5f5",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "April 30: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:20:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5J0D99KYF0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T12:17:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 87888981.28583376,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R2L2603TX7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3178919.0629580044,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CVQLKWF3Q9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x084a4aac9da433824013ad192196193d7d1bd8293c0fedc9eb7e687909fd1d0f",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 24: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-25T06:42:24Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2840339.1436810005,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L6B1K6HTD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 15: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-16T06:49:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z3BP2FSGG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11895e6064bac471d8fd8f930b260cf581b68d3f58630d27",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: A permanent peace deal agreement between the named parties explicitly indicating permanent cessation of military hostilities resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment on June 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc5331256bff341491df0656772c4245a99a483c58eeda2faa70fa6bb8b7b0405",
      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?",
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      "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?",
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