{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LKC5D42R3",
  "slug": "us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will the U.S. and Russia reach a nuclear deal by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "trump",
    "us-russia-relations",
    "nuclear-diplomacy",
    "geopolitics",
    "2025"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the U.S. and Russia will reach a nuclear agreement by three sequential deadlines: December 31, 2025, February 4, and June 30. Each is a binary outcome market resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The December 31 deadline resolved on January 1, 2026, per the resolve_at timestamp. Later deadlines extend the same binary structure across a longer horizon.",
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "question": "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verificati",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:07:39Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and February 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verificati",
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      "underlying_reference": "February 4: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-02-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-05T09:31:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "score": 30,
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 63515.953074,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0Z3TS7CFR6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1LKC5D42R3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0f9e5bd480cc8c085ec2f229d8fc8d892f6b16c53d16b9e2bd8ea78bb7be20b4",
      "question": "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
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