{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q16SDF41Z3",
  "slug": "vance-announces-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2028-this-year",
  "question": "Will Vance announce he won't run for President in 2028 this year?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "2028-presidential-race",
    "vance-jd",
    "political-announcements",
    "us-elections"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether JD Vance publicly announces he will not seek the presidency in 2028, with resolution deadline December 31, 2026. A confirming statement must come from Vance or his authorized representatives directly. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Absence of a disavowal does not trigger resolution; only an affirmative withdrawal statement qualifies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZR4W3LLDG9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZR4W3LLDG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q16SDF41Z3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82141371409da1f4b21c5da853ee821c1acbb5c542a52ababc920df9546ec932",
      "question": "Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representativ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official statements from JD Vance or his authorized representatives announcing he will not run for President in 2028.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from JD Vance or his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 15767.848197000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2028 election",
        "jd vance",
        "jd vance 2028",
        "presidential race"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Q16SDF41Z3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}