{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
  "slug": "venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026",
  "question": "Will Venezuela have a new de facto leader by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "venezuela",
    "leadership-succession",
    "2026",
    "geopolitics",
    "maduro"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which individual will hold primary executive authority over Venezuela at end of 2026. Polymarket deploys its UMA Optimistic Oracle across a named-candidate slate, pricing each person as a binary outcome. The suite includes both incumbent regime figures and U.S. officials, reflecting tail-risk scenarios around external intervention. Resolution requires identifying a single individual exercising control over armed forces and state apparatus as of December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LSLX2ZL3M0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.004,
    "implied_probability": 0.004
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29XF7LWYT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7590cbc21f9c580c11c83294b29070e4ce8629ef869058d84128407ae7ec36dd",
      "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Nicolás Maduro: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4151.1816659999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RXPL9CF9W9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x354c604439d7aa5d000d17a7afe94c3bc0bc1840b2ba92068b6978ee1f782478",
      "question": "Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Delcy Rodríguez: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.9,
      "implied_probability": 0.9,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1245.557279,
      "volume_total_usd": 74285.27348199999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7L05WLT2J8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe4044a81d532d3994fe8fd1d0ea0534843b2d0cc721565d5b35cb87c0c9f5fd1",
      "question": "Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "María Corina Machado: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.048,
      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.098325,
      "volume_total_usd": 51820.87505899998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MRSVBBSGF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3c1312e1589df1405a01bc9b481f89f012a5c263dae8712e1e5af70ab5240480",
      "question": "Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Diosdado Cabello Rondón: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3392.5373080000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WXMZV6D7J1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf5758394b00b704a9487b0e8ef1a2f75e8b958fa46cb70b0ec6f6becb1983e40",
      "question": "Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jorge Rodríguez: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7190.190500999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M5ZW2KZ7M6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd23288d839be9f81a5b897a99e99061ce892c62fd1b48b814793fa63c07967e1",
      "question": "Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Edmundo González: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3500.49875,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TR04XPYSP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4715da54dd9aaafbdbcdacf9fbb515961b9fdee4561d5b647fac4c69d87eba96",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2669.740666,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S9CNH291G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9826355ea18ae77199fbf64bb121fdce76e8490d94391e6ee41b98d53c1f294d",
      "question": "Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Vladimir Padrino López: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 68019.024,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LVJD0PHYC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x78e40a3183e91eb0f65755a484d381b3b2a842bdbe5a157ec10b456430c881d5",
      "question": "Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Dinorah Figuera: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4171.392127,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R6B01KNK93",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x937dc6ba220f74e165d9b9df3b98699e53e7d50cc0ccba046e0e77c3ba287921",
      "question": "Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Marco Rubio: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5597.945785999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-65N5G1ZNM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x17b66274e57a38acd15e628503ee6e83d3f261e906e8b8c99e5f79328f453294",
      "question": "Will Evan Pettus be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Evan Pettus: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7127.514,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-72GH0R0WL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe8edb84bc1fb776b38ec9055336213a0d28bf45619876a711d38e8d2428fef7e",
      "question": "Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Dan Caine: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3009.2895,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-470LJHK603",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x23bd5a13912c5c5c9fd6051d5b2da91515d031e9bc26dabfb8fe3c5c198ebcb7",
      "question": "Will Pete Hegseth be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Pete Hegseth: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2758.162166,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7DRRTCZ9G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf728480baae359984899b976625a624530650107c5ce6dad184760200e969d58",
      "question": "Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Frank Donovan: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 42101.392166,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6P4N09XPN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x540eadc79f1b702ec85a5ee943798f85a085d379755193cf27a8c90235729f9c",
      "question": "Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Richard Grenell: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7119.382000000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSLX2ZL3M0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2122019d3d96845349e08dda193aae2ff0d4ebac8b7a527d6cbc0ed2114f9d60",
      "question": "Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Head of State: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 66853.76036799999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KDG901JSN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x16d04cbedc1fae622a8323d6cc42376171f875c32d5bf5684cafa62284ca2089",
      "question": "Will another person be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QKN0K65VL1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x39b975a65742b2db63d6f38b59a4de1051535f5c0d8fa9a98131e78ad56347cc",
      "question": "Will Person A be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person A: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MSMW8DGWZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9ac9c9bab89629e9d29739cb6c0ed44afffb9fe7ed597bc5decba905c478b55b",
      "question": "Will Person B be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person B: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YQ7VKX1CL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3cf18dd172d87023f71f380ffdf4218ab44f28cb614b623f9b18498754aff8de",
      "question": "Will Person C be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person C: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RHVM6FY5P7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe58ba7746428b163b797cdfbd6435f641bf64b075b996ade326a1ec3c1597f4e",
      "question": "Will Person D be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person D: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "venezuela de facto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GM5D3FLD06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91c535d2a3b2c9eae98778f115d0c5cedcd787b198bd4a3e1c9769eef05455b1",
      "question": "Will Person E be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person E: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-667LS53B98",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf873c5a5c9b66e098de2045a9f49450483a4261ec654930cfd598dfeaf878042",
      "question": "Will Person F be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person F: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "caps": [
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4202c2b4801731e688713551314f5ce71a14856bee11e1d6b493641e5f871c58",
      "question": "Will Person G be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person G: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x92a74cb57811dcc16d3b31ae05dc7820dec3d54d74ccc83ac25f3c99c38ae250",
      "question": "Will Person H be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person H: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKMSWJ2WV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x942c9b486d12fcb16336814c69f04a6134da9a611060c13551bdcd0748bb7aa2",
      "question": "Will Person I be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person I: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFGXD04DD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5dfbfcd5d5c14fa0be2b7109f1ef297ce7ceab6c82ecba23d595cb3687578aba",
      "question": "Will Person J be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person J: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-76RM913MC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x97ec55df8757a3a56a0e5c60d133178ff005fe4ad38d831d7b5909ffc98607da",
      "question": "Will Person K be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person K: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9N5DDWMZ37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2874e700a1e4ff7939014c1c9c6cbf1d171f7018266dbae33cb43e581b556d81",
      "question": "Will Person L be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person L: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ace1788c94cee459a6a7b0ec34a75b9d1bd311eda55a4fac71397a9af2ac0f9",
      "question": "Will Person M be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Person M: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe79afc67f5e3b286399e74f443563dfafee6c42272458fbe49ea34b292e71b99",
      "question": "Will Person N be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Person N: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x447d836f84434200d3fddbf523d08b3d8eae447047bf96babd48de8df8b63727",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0a9acf2cfa1a18b454d52dfffcf129ac3510fc0790e688fe501beba52521c0e8",
      "question": "Will Person Q be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Person Q: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc9cedfbf4daaba4c3f04d52a092d3935386e144cc5de3bcb754b36d2557714f0",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xa7236603a16b0b733146f127acc197bb64f5d417a64269a46b3bb06b4f5b59ed",
      "question": "Will Person T be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person T: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcc78a45cf4a7531828124f2509570850565c4f03d2550b91eb7d7f89eb999664",
      "question": "Will Person U be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Person U: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Person V: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc2a93239799fdc8fe262c9239e49f107d62109fe0d1484db372c2a8cd8f55162",
      "question": "Will Person W be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Person W: The individual exercising primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including control over armed forces and core decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbc33f55f7dab98ed498a6b45fcccfd626f9b561a72953ad9d2c0e4aa15a64392",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Person Y be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x6c650092e3af479708f5efb7b71f5625f10d4719561c3880bafbbfcdf3bd7b5f",
      "question": "Will Person Z be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign govern",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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