{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
  "slug": "virginia-republican-senate-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will a Republican win the Virginia Senate primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "virginia",
    "republican-primary",
    "senate"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Virginia Republican Senate primary. Each Polymarket contract prices a single candidate's nomination probability as a binary outcome. All 18 contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Virginia Republican Party's announced results. Named placeholders such as Candidate H through O allow late entrants to be priced without relaunching the market structure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5PYFTXKSG6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.004,
    "implied_probability": 0.004
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LT12SRBXZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x38cabfe3578270adcb745ea4ebc5a36a43f1977ab13b6a1204ddfa8bb29a81d3",
      "question": "Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bryce Reeves: The Virginia Republican Party's announced results of the 2026 Republican Primary for United States Senator, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if unavailable, resolves by June 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the Virginia Republican party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5PYFTXKSG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a5589de888a72e9e1d711a323ceb1794c9135d4f4a2029fe3bb1cb6cad66e22",
      "question": "Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Al Mina: The Virginia Republican Party's announced results of the 2026 Republican Primary for United States Senator, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if unavailable, resolves by June 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
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      "question": "Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4KG9JW4D69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x114ba3133f9949f6a34f75caf515b6eb43eecf19a71958fdb0950f4bd94cf10e",
      "question": "Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X5VSMQDWN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0d265dcb5ee28b25e95a7b130a2d90e7894c205bdfe7cc1a17dcc4aef2413a4a",
      "question": "Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alex De Paula: The Virginia Republican Party's announced results of the 2026 Republican Primary for United States Senator, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if unavailable, resolves by June 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3QK12JPLG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd78eddccfdac48b4de61d2d998a69a4d5816d1587983024198b5644a72d3ae1f",
      "question": "Will Candidate I be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate I: The Virginia Republican Party's announced results of the 2026 Republican Primary for United States Senator, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if unavailable, resolves by June 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x194a3e4970f46a6920d57f3a15bae803e9648b71f2d83712f52cef1f44deb398",
      "question": "Will Candidate K be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate K: The Virginia Republican Party's announced results of the 2026 Republican Primary for United States Senator, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if unavailable, resolves by June 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4P7RLHYQ87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x7034ee31b08cb458665beac26aa21d0f7e47742553548a2aaf02fdc4ab981b1c",
      "question": "Will Candidate M be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate M: The Virginia Republican Party's announced results of the 2026 Republican Primary for United States Senator, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if unavailable, resolves by June 16, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NM59P2PK15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x151f00b091b2e346656190b49c06644920fdba4f1280f7976e7f5f6bdfec7bb3",
      "question": "Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.\n\nIf no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
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    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}