{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
  "slug": "visa-v-q3-payments-volume-growth-constant-dollars-20260718210051269",
  "question": "Will Visa's Q3 payments volume growth in constant dollars be positive?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "visa",
    "payments-volume",
    "q3-2026",
    "earnings-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Visa's year-over-year payments volume growth in constant dollars for Q3 fiscal 2026. Polymarket structures the outcome as five discrete strike tiers: below 7.5%, 7.5%-8.5%, 8.5%-9.5%, 9.5%-10.5%, and 10.5% and above. Together they form an implied probability distribution over the growth rate. Resolution relies on Visa's official earnings materials, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7DRHY81H77",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.44,
    "implied_probability": 0.44
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PD3GVCXPY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe1f4953b4ebb4865d0314685aa4009c477fc1db2a24a3b1a8a62fcb870c2e8aa",
      "question": "Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) <7.5%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<7.5%?: Visa's official Q2 2026 earnings materials will report payments volume growth in constant dollars year-over-year; if unreported, market resolves to lowest bracket by July 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.098,
      "implied_probability": 0.098,
      "volume_24h_usd": 43.039794,
      "volume_total_usd": 720.3047719999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 7.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-A010476E93",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "payments",
        "q2",
        "v",
        "visa",
        "visa payments volume",
        "volume"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8TXJ98HH59",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x560c34acc02235c79d5704573ca6dac81bcd0fe414e6e8ca67d8c2e5df73f2d4",
      "question": "Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 7.5%-8.5%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "7.5%-8.5%: Visa's official Q2 2026 earnings materials will report payments volume growth in constant dollars year-over-year; if unreported, market resolves to lowest bracket by July 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 28.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 1624.525885,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A4D156AE9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "payments",
        "q2",
        "v",
        "visa",
        "visa payments volume",
        "volume"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7DRHY81H77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcb583d0e8d43c81538cf678704d5bd39b4ac5a4ae4695cee17b02caced274ecd",
      "question": "Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "8.5%-9.5%: Visa's official Q2 2026 earnings materials will report payments volume growth in constant dollars year-over-year; if unreported, market resolves to lowest bracket by July 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 497.0762939999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 5351.795710000014,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A4D156AE9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "payments",
        "q2",
        "v",
        "visa",
        "visa payments volume",
        "volume"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZRVH1SRYW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x128cb09458eb74c8ed66a8a26901f97e2863d36e8f7ca6962f7bb8f2642ee0b7",
      "question": "Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 9.5%-10.5%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9.5%-10.5%: Visa's official Q2 2026 earnings materials will report payments volume growth in constant dollars year-over-year; if unreported, market resolves to lowest bracket by July 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 411.03,
      "volume_total_usd": 4691.521662,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A4D156AE9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "payments",
        "q2",
        "v",
        "visa",
        "visa payments volume",
        "volume"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CRPTSMC8N2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc0fcee5adbeda509951f58437454e33f910b14e5774a10d3b6d8f213ea4e0ff3",
      "question": "Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 10.5%+?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "10.5%+: Visa's official Q2 2026 earnings materials will report payments volume growth in constant dollars year-over-year; if unreported, market resolves to lowest bracket by July 28, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming second third quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24,
      "volume_total_usd": 403.74186599999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-23A7538BA0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "growth",
        "payments",
        "q2",
        "v",
        "visa",
        "visa payments volume",
        "volume"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-D19K4D9CX3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}