{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VSYJWXXZS2",
  "slug": "von-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Ursula von der Leyen no longer be serving as European Commission President by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "eu-leadership",
    "von-der-leyen",
    "executive-removal",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Ursula von der Leyen departs the European Commission presidency before end-2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the outcome directly, with no paired rate-level or margin structure on a second platform. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official European Commission and European Union statements. The market closes and resolves at 2026-12-31.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0RQP5ZL830",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.056,
    "implied_probability": 0.056
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0RQP5ZL830",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VSYJWXXZS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xff7af0d4001a984e5bdb2ced851ca82babf800344071ed5f8aee2df7b55797a8",
      "question": "Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible rep",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official statements from the European Commission and European Union regarding Ursula von der Leyen's status as President through December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Commission and the European Union",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.056,
      "implied_probability": 0.056,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 41127.023655000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "leadership",
        "politics",
        "von der leyen"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VSYJWXXZS2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}