{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1G2HVDCQG7",
  "slug": "what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Trump agree to Iranian demands by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-us-relations",
    "trump-administration",
    "diplomacy-negotiations",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Polymarket markets track whether Trump agrees to specific Iranian negotiating demands before June 30, 2026. Each market isolates a distinct concession: troop withdrawal, uranium enrichment rights, oil sanction relief, Strait of Hormuz transit fees, and asset unfreezing. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Traders can express views on each demand independently, allowing granular positioning across the concession spectrum.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-192XK6F501",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZP67656Z5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1G2HVDCQG7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfa08848205da5717b79e5bc21e7dbd31264fb01acc98bd1436b95870e8fec409",
      "question": "Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Troop Withdrawal: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if:\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran.\n- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45656.30001200001,
      "volume_total_usd": 112865.61424199895,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "military",
        "us military withdrawal",
        "usa"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7Y90K7NHR7",
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      "question": "Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to h",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Enrichment of Uranium: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VL93XJCSQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1G2HVDCQG7",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x639d8b6161b0f21aa3bbefc68223b09572d14228e903809b706c84443e8067ff",
      "question": "Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nSanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. perso",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Oil Sanction Relief: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nSanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil\n- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LZKQJHYSZ1",
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      "question": "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.\n- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nUnfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Unfreeze Iranian Assets: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nUnfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.\n- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",
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