{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
  "slug": "what-kind-of-product-will-openai-announce-in-2026",
  "question": "What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "product-announcement",
    "ai-hardware",
    "tech-2026",
    "consumer-tech"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenAI publicly announces specific consumer hardware product categories by December 31, 2026. Each binary market isolates a single form factor, from earbuds and glasses to a phone or laptop. All ten resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official OpenAI announcements. A single OpenAI hardware event could resolve multiple markets simultaneously, creating correlated exposure across the set.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TWGVVGY911",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.2,
    "implied_probability": 0.2
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3ff9124b87f05d7a65ec801f28cb336b86c16a2197afb0139731610d55e21d27",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Earbuds/Headphones: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "official information from OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 119346.79424800002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F546FB5B92",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "audio",
        "hardware",
        "openai",
        "openai earbuds headphones",
        "wearable"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8FJN6PW056",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9808175a3da0c4c5c12884209195e3e6236bd82ce435f34e6b88c92b0a7c4db9",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
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      "question_id": "CMX-389474FA9D",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Glasses: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 55374.39798100001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE0A216B85",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ar",
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        "openai",
        "openai glasses",
        "wearable"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FK3Z7XSQY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2d9e8b66e63e7b169416eed9d241a5aa633ba0052f553bb64a824e21f1be04c4",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Phone: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "official information from OpenAI",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [],
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      "volume_total_usd": 53653.30505599998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-496CCB5BF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "mobile",
        "openai",
        "openai phone"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HRWMKLN2R4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe5fbcaf9e6eee30018a5e19d9e96296c7fd6be8502f8c8239a80a3108198417c",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Head-mounted display: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "vr",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LTKM3C8MZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xec68eadfac48a30f23f3a7f4acc4428d65bac28cc61f7daf2581f42201d72d48",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Clip-on device for clothing: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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      "volume_total_usd": 26281.659862999993,
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      "question_id": "CMX-3EE06DC70F",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe1c1ad2a8552dbb0ac83b1baf7986d74849fbef0e209d44efbd2f2e5254e4e75",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Watch: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-30PJDS6DP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CSVW31CR17",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x456a6fc21b414098046a33440896cb6cfaa86dc1a0032f2a73af21980b5e1099",
      "question": "Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ring: Official OpenAI announcements resolve whether the named company publicly announces the referenced consumer hardware product type by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to \"Yes\" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.\n\nIf a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "official information from OpenAI",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 10876.431998000004,
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      "question_id": "CMX-8E4A0F7CDC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "openai",
        "openai ring",
        "wearable"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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