{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
  "slug": "what-will-based-prediction-market-revenue-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "Based Polymarket revenue M before 2027",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      1000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1000000,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3000000,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4000000,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5000000,
        "prob": 8
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "prediction-markets",
    "based-protocol",
    "revenue-milestone",
    "2027",
    "defi-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five markets track cumulative revenue for Based, a prediction market built on Base. Each binary asks whether revenue crosses a discrete threshold, from $1M to $5M, before end of 2026. Together they function as implicit strike levels, letting traders express a range view through layered binary positions. Resolution references the Based Statistics dashboard on Dune Analytics, verified via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQMSB6WBR1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQMSB6WBR1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x613be69dd5457a4dcfb451dd65a5a97bf3597a699bd3acfe87d9b6c2f8f683cd",
      "question": "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1M: Dune Analytics' Based Statistics dashboard cumulative revenue chart resolves this market by December 31, 2026 ET, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "on-chain data",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Based official communication",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 16251.759955999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1D67E36B38",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "based",
        "based prediction revenue",
        "polymarket",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PYGMTJ1140",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x52cc889b456b6ad471dfb3dd19ec949e768875104b146dc0506c62b5dfe71199",
      "question": "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $2M before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2M: Dune Analytics' Based Statistics dashboard cumulative revenue chart resolves this market by December 31, 2026 ET, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "on-chain data",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Based official communication",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5366.857800000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4D47D5F181",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "based",
        "based prediction revenue",
        "polymarket",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D5QKMF2SW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xad1f3c47c8ec4abcc687cdea5e870894037303f5f8f7e98f026307eef13cbf9e",
      "question": "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3M: Dune Analytics' Based Statistics dashboard cumulative revenue chart resolves this market by December 31, 2026 ET, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "on-chain data",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Based official communication",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3151.001131,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B8777EDAAA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "based",
        "based prediction revenue",
        "polymarket",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZV383956B0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x389af7e0e1f0857f302824af7484d2155f9aedc5ea32025ab629c04af9f780af",
      "question": "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$4M: Dune Analytics' Based Statistics dashboard cumulative revenue chart resolves this market by December 31, 2026 ET, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "on-chain data",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Based official communication",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5501.510358000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4C23BFCAB9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "based",
        "based prediction revenue",
        "polymarket",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LBX80FHZH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x491d08b98a6beb3f7182f4760fe5ed1e50bed572c835a5f886adf61681617628",
      "question": "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$5M: Dune Analytics' Based Statistics dashboard cumulative revenue chart resolves this market by December 31, 2026 ET, via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dune.com",
            "url": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "on-chain data",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Based official communication",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "other reliable crypto sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dune.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.077,
      "implied_probability": 0.077,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5051.0704380000025,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-18892229E5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "based",
        "based prediction revenue",
        "polymarket",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VNSG7VK4P9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}